El Niño winter road trips: what NOAA’s outlook means for your drive
NOAA's winter outlook for December 2026 to February 2027, issued October 15, 2026, favors a wetter winter across the southern U.S., from the Southwest to the Southeast, and a warmer one for the Pacific Northwest, northern California, the Midwest and much of the East. It does not forecast seasonal snowfall, so plan each drive on the hourly forecast.
Source: NOAA: El Niño looms large over U.S. Winter Outlook, October 15, 2026. Last reviewed November 2, 2026.
What NOAA's outlook says, and doesn't
- Wetter than average is most likely across the southern tier, from the Southwest to the Southeast.
- Drier than average is favored for the northern Mountain West, parts of the Great Lakes, much of Alaska and Hawaii.
- Warmer than average is favored for northern California, the Pacific Northwest, the Midwest and much of the East. Near-normal temperatures are most likely in parts of the Southeast, including Florida.
- The National Weather Service director said a very strong El Niño will likely shift the jet stream south and east, which favors stormier weather across the South.
- The outlook does not forecast seasonal snowfall. NOAA says snow forecasts are generally not reliable more than about a week ahead.
A seasonal outlook gives the odds of a wetter or warmer season than normal. It doesn't say what will happen on the day you drive.
Plan by the hour you'll be there
WeatherWeGo? routes your drive, checks the hourly forecast at each checkpoint for the time you'll pass it, and adds active National Weather Service alerts and state DOT road data.
Check the weather for your driveSouthern routes to watch
These are the mountain and desert crossings in the wetter-than-average southern tier that have a live conditions page. Each shows the forecast at every checkpoint for the hour you would be there, plus active NWS alerts.
I-5 over the Grapevine (Tejon Pass)
I-5 between Santa Clarita and Bakersfield crosses Tejon Pass at 4,144 feet, then drops down the Grapevine, a 6% grade for 5 miles, into the San Joaquin Valley. Caltrans says snow and ice close it fully an average of 3 to 5 times between October and April, cutting the main road between Southern and Northern California.
Live I-5 conditions, Santa Clarita, CA to Bakersfield, CA →CA-58 over Tehachapi Pass
CA-58 climbs from Bakersfield through the Tehachapi Mountains to Tehachapi, then drops to Mojave on the desert side. Caltrans describes the stretch between Bakersfield and Tehachapi as a steep grade, and its Grapevine closure guide lists SR-58 as the first detour when I-5 over Tejon Pass closes.
Live CA-58 conditions, Bakersfield, CA to Mojave, CA →I-15 over Cajon Pass
Cajon Pass (3,777 ft) between San Bernardino and the High Desert is the one place on the LA–Vegas drive where snow closes the road. It happens a few times each winter and strands thousands because nobody expects it.
Live I-15 conditions, Los Angeles, CA to Las Vegas, NV →I-8 over Mountain Springs (In-Ko-Pah)
I-8 leaves San Diego, crosses the mountains of eastern San Diego County past Jacumba, then descends the Mountain Springs grade past In-Ko-Pah into Imperial County and the Imperial Valley at El Centro. It is the main road between San Diego and the desert Southwest.
Live I-8 conditions, San Diego, CA to El Centro, CA →I-10 through San Gorgonio Pass
I-10 runs through San Gorgonio Pass between Banning and the Coachella Valley at Palm Springs, the gap between Mt San Gorgonio and Mt San Jacinto. It is the main road from Los Angeles and the Inland Empire to Palm Springs and Phoenix.
Live I-10 conditions, Banning, CA to Palm Springs, CA →I-40 from Albuquerque to Flagstaff
I-40 climbs from the desert to 7,000 feet at Flagstaff, and the 100 miles between Winslow and Williams see heavy snow every winter. Drivers heading to the Grand Canyon or Phoenix rarely expect it.
Live I-40 conditions, Albuquerque, NM to Flagstaff, AZ →I-17 from Phoenix to Flagstaff
I-17 climbs 6,000 feet in 145 miles from Phoenix to Flagstaff. The top 40 miles from Camp Verde through Munds Park are where snow and ice close it, often while it is 70°F in Phoenix.
Live I-17 conditions, Phoenix, AZ to Flagstaff, AZ →I-40 Memphis to Nashville
I-40 crosses West and Middle Tennessee between Memphis and Nashville, crossing the Tennessee River about halfway. Winter storms here bring ice as well as snow, and TDOT SmartWay is the official source for conditions and incidents.
Live I-40 conditions, Memphis, TN to Nashville, TN →Northern passes
NOAA favors a warmer than average winter for northern California and the Pacific Northwest. A warmer season does not rule out snowstorms on these passes, so check whether the forecast calls for rain or snow at the hour you would cross.
I-90 over Snoqualmie Pass
Snoqualmie Pass at 3,022 feet is low by western standards but sits exactly where Pacific moisture meets Cascade cold, so it gets 400+ inches of snow a year. WSDOT closes it several times a winter for avalanche control and spinouts.
Live I-90 conditions, Seattle, WA to Ellensburg, WA →US-2 over Stevens Pass
US-2 climbs the Skykomish valley from Monroe to Stevens Pass at 4,061 feet, then descends through Tumwater Canyon to Leavenworth. It is the main alternative to I-90 across the Washington Cascades and sits about 1,000 feet higher than Snoqualmie Pass, with avalanche control all winter.
Live US-2 conditions, Monroe, WA to Leavenworth, WA →I-80 over Donner Pass
I-80 crosses the Sierra Nevada at Donner Summit, 7,240 feet, between Sacramento and Reno. Sierra storms can drop several feet of snow in a day, and Caltrans chain controls (R-1, R-2, R-3) are the norm from November through April.
Live I-80 conditions, Sacramento, CA to Reno, NV →Heavy rain, flash floods and mudslides
NOAA's release warns that too much rain on dry ground can bring destructive flash floods and mudslides. Rain closes roads too: in December 2025, Caltrans fully closed westbound CA-58 near Tehachapi for flash flooding and debris. NWS flash flood warnings on your route show up in the planner and on each road page.
El Niño road trip FAQ
- Does El Niño mean more snow in the mountains?
- NOAA's outlook does not forecast seasonal snowfall, and NOAA says snow forecasts are generally not reliable more than about a week ahead. It favors a wetter winter across the southern U.S. Whether that falls as rain or snow on a given pass depends on each storm, so check the hourly forecast for your drive.
- Which roads are most affected by El Niño?
- NOAA does not rank roads. Its outlook favors wetter conditions from the Southwest to the Southeast, so the southern mountain and desert crossings on this page are the ones where more storms are favored. The road authority for each stretch has the final word on closures and chain controls.
- When does NOAA update the winter outlook?
- Every month, on the third Thursday, from the Climate Prediction Center. The next update is November 19, 2026. This guide is reviewed after each update.
Outlook schedule: Climate Prediction Center seasonal outlooks.
For route planning only. Conditions change by the hour; this page is a planning aid built on public forecasts and DOT feeds, and the road authority for each stretch always has the final word on closures and chain requirements.